Direction of trade for fresh and chilled gherkins exports from India: An analysis of global market destinations

Abstract

India is the leading producer and exporter of fresh and chilled gherkins globally, with the southern states contributing significantly to the country's total production. This study aimed to analyze the direction of trade of Indian fresh and chilled gherkins using secondary data from 2011-12 to 2022-23. Employing the first-order Markov chain approach, a transitional probability matrix was developed to examine changes in export patterns to key markets over time. The result indicated that Qatar retained 73.95% of Indian fresh and chilled gherkins exports, while the remaining share shifted to other countries, such as Oman, Bahrain IS and Bhutan. Bhutan consistently retained 100% of its import share, indicating a stable demand. However, study suggests that the complete depending on Bhutan is not a good for India so that India has to diversify its trade to other nations then India can mitigate the risk associated with Indian fresh and chilled gherkins export. Relying on just one or two countries for gherkins exports can be risky, as any downturn in trade with those countries can disrupt the entire export system. To mitigate this, diversifying trade across multiple nations is a safer approach. The study also emphasized India's robust gherkins trade relationships with Qatar, Bhutan and the UAE, driven by geographical proximity and advantageous trade agreements. It recommends sustaining strong political relations and pursuing bilateral agreements with importing countries to reduce tariff and non-tariff trade barriers.