Price forecast for market information system (MIS) in maize crop in Ambala district of Haryana

Abstract

The present study was conducted in Ambala district, Sahzadpur and Naraingarh Blocks of Haryana which was selected purposively on the basis of maximum production under maize crop. Further, Sahazdpur, Mullana, Naraingarh and Ambala city markets were purposively selected for the market study. Finally, 4 regulated markets in Ambala district were purposively selected. Average prices in Haryana data for the period of 2005 to 2016 were analyzed the time series methods. Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. ARIMA (0, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model were used to forecast average prices in Ambala for one leading years. The results also shows average prices forecast for the year 2017 to be about 1433 per quintal with upper and lower limit 1438 and 1433 per quintal in Sahzadpur market, respectively. The results also shows average prices forecast for the year 2017 to be about 1439 per quintal with upper and lower limit 1447 and 1439 per quintal in Mullana market, respectively. The results also shows average prices forecast for the year 2017 to be about 1439 per quintal with upper and lower limit 1445 and 1439 per quintal in Naraingarh market, respectively. The results also shows average prices forecast for the year 2017 to be about 1435 per quintal with upper and lower limit 1435 and 1439 per quintal in Ambala city market, respectively.