A study on arrivals and price behavior & forecasting of lathyrus in Krishi Upaj Mandis of Chhattisgarh plains

Abstract

An attempt has been made in this study to examine the arrivals and price behavior & forecasting of lathyrus in Krishi Upaj Mandis of Chhattisgarh plains. Krishi Upaj Mandi (KUM) Bhatapara, KUM Mungeli, KUM Rajnandgaon, KUM Kabirdham and KUM Bemetra were selected on the basis of maximum arrivals of lathyrus. The seasonal variations in prices and arrivals of pulses and their seasonal indices was calculated by employing twelve months ratio to moving average method to achieve the behavior. ARIMA model was applied for forecasting of arrivals and prices of lathyrus in selected Krishi Upaj Mandis of Chhattisgarh plains. This model also called Box-Jenkins model. Three peak arrivals was found in month March (1886.17), April (1248.42) and May (403.91). However, seasonal indices of price of lathyrus. It indicates that there are three peak prices was found in month October (89.36), November (46.69) and July (45.78). The study was found that forecasts the arrivals of lathyrus would be ranging from the minimum 832.55 tonnes in September, 2018 to the maximum 4299.91 tonnes in March, 2021 and forecasted prices of lathyrus in the selected market were more or less closer. Forecasts price of lathyrus would be ranging from the minimum Rs./qtl 1050.31/- in April, 2018 to the maximum Rs./qtl 2467.94/- in October 2019.These informations were useful to strengthen their plan and policy makers arrivals to the conclusion on through forecasts of arrivals and prices in future months.