Forecasting the arrivals and prices of soybean in Chhattisgarh plains

Abstract

Under agricultural sector in India Oilseed crops have diverse area. In the State of Chhattisgarh, the oilseed crops, namely, groundnut, sunflower, niger, sesame, Soybean, linseed, mustard-rapeseed are grown in its different parts. Soybean occupies first position both in area and production among oilseeds in Chhattisgarh. It is grown mainly in Chhattisgarh Plains. For the development of agriculture it is quite necessary that farmers get good prices of their products in the agricultural markets. If there could be some forecast of arrivals and prices, the farmer would be benefitted in terms of selling its products. With the help of forecasting of arrivals and prices, farmers of this State could find the forecast for the specific month in which they get high and remunerative price of their produce. To get a good idea of the arrivals and prices of oilseeds varying over the time, it is necessary to study the time series patterns of arrivals and prices of Soybean over the years in Chhattisgarh Plains. Using the datacollected in this study, different linear, non-linear and time series models are fitted for both variables in Chhattisgarh Plains, and best model based forecasts were made to fulfil the requirements of planners and farmers.