Temporal Trend Analysis of Crop Area and Production Dynamics: A Case study of Bhiwani District

Abstract

Long-term trends in agricultural production are crucial for food security, economic stability and climate resilience. By studying the temporal trends in the surface and production of the three main crops, namely, rice, cotton and millet, from 2010 to 2021. By identifying monotonous trends and rates of change through statistical and non-parametric methods, such as the Mann-Kendall trend test and the slope estimator of Sen. The results show a statistically significant positive trend in the surface of rice (Z = 3,58, p < 0,01) and the production (Z = 3,81, p < 0,01), with an annual growth rate of 35,27 hectares and 187,17 units of production, respectively. The cotton surface showed a significant upward trend (Z = 2,80, p < 0,05), which represents instability in the yield. In both sets of data, Mijo showed no trend in surface production over the long term (since interannual variability was observed). The results indicate a trend towards an increase in the cultivation of dry land rice, a limited commercialization associated with the cultivation of cotton and stagnation in the growth of traditional dry land crops. These structural changes have important implications for the future sustainability of resources, in particular the policies of adaptation to climate change and groundwater. The study reiterates that the diversity of farming systems is crucial for long-term agricultural resilience.