Growth performance and instability analysis of area, production and productivity of onion in India using non-linear model

Abstract

Onion (Allium cepa L.) is a major commercial vegetable crop in India, contributing significantly to agricultural income, food security and export earnings. Despite sustained expansion in cultivation, onion production in India exhibits considerable instability due to climatic variability, market fluctuations and regional differences in technology adoption. The present study analyses the growth performance and instability of onion area, production and productivity in India using non-linear (exponential) growth models. The study is based entirely on secondary data, covering a period of forty years (1985-86 to 2024-25) for All-India analysis and twenty years (2005-06 to 2024-25) for major onion-producing states. Growth performance was assessed using Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) estimated through exponential models, while instability was measured using the Coefficient of Variation (CV) and the Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI), which accounts for trend effects.The results indicate a clear structural shift in onion growth dynamics over time. During the early period (1985-86 to 2004-05), growth in production was largely driven by expansion of cultivated area, with negligible improvement in productivity. In contrast, the later period (2005-06 to 2024-25) recorded higher growth in area and production, along with modest but significant gains in productivity, reflecting improved varieties, better crop management and expansion of irrigation. State-wise analysis reveals substantial inter-state variation. Madhya Pradesh emerged as the fastest-growing state in terms of area and production, while Maharashtra maintained its dominance in overall output despite higher instability. Rajasthan recorded the highest productivity growth, largely due to rabi-season predominance and assured irrigation. Overall, the study highlights persistent instability in onion production and underscores the need for region-specific policies focusing on productivity enhancement, post-harvest infrastructure and market stabilization to ensure sustainable growth of the onion sector in India.