Statistical analysis of growth trends in the production of mango in Dharwad and Kolar Districts of Karnataka

Abstract

This study examines the long-term production trends of mango in Dharwad and Kolar districts of Karnataka using 44 years of secondary data (1980-2023). To capture the underlying patterns, linear, quadratic, cubic, exponential, and logarithmic regression models were applied, and their suitability was judged based on the coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE). The cubic model emerged as the most appropriate in both districts, explaining 79.84% of the variation in Dharwad with an RMSE of 14,184.28, and 68.41% in Kolar with an RMSE of 49,031.05. These findings suggest that mango production exhibited a non-linear trend, influenced by climatic factors, cultivation practices, and market conditions. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) analysis further confirmed positive growth, with Dharwad showing a significant annual increase of 5.15% and Kolar recording 1.68%. The relatively higher growth in Dharwad reflects better agro-climatic suitability and improved management, whereas Kolar’s slower growth points to production constraints. Overall, the study highlights regional differences in mango cultivation and underscores the need for tailored strategies to enhance productivity, strengthen resilience, and support farmer incomes.