Rainfall variability and long-term trends across central (Malwa) highlands, Gujarat plains, and Kathiawar Peninsula Region of Gujarat

Abstract

The present study analyses the long-term variability in the rainfall for the area of Gujarat that fall in the agro-ecological region 5 (central Malwa highlands, Gujarat plains, and Kathiawar peninsula region). The region represents a highly varying topography with high altitude regions towards the east and coastal boundaries towards the west. A 31-year data from 1990-2020 was analysed to find the variability in rainfall of the region. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope analysis were used to understand the trend of rainfall in the region. The results showed a highly heterogeneous trend in the region. A significantly increasing trend was observed in the western coastal districts of the region. In contrast, the central region exhibited a non-significant decline, and towards the east, the variability was also non-significant. These heterogeneous trends underline the importance of localized climate adaptation strategies for the region's agricultural and water management activities.