The economic impact of climate change on global agricultural systems: A socio-economic perspective

Abstract

Climate change, via rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather, and altered water availability, poses a mounting threat to global agricultural production. This paper reviews empirical evidence and model projections to assess the socio-economic implications of climate change on agriculture worldwide, with special attention to impacts on crop yields, rural livelihoods, food security, and regional disparities. Global analyses suggest substantial declines in yields for major staple crops, even when accounting for adaptation; in many low‑ and middle-income countries, agricultural output and household incomes are projected to suffer. The paper also explores impacts in the Indian context, where agriculture remains a major employer and the backbone of rural economies: studies forecast significant yield reductions in cereals and pulses, threatening food security and income stability for millions. Economic costs extend beyond yield losses to include price volatility, reduced labour productivity, and loss of competitiveness in agricultural trade. The review concludes that without robust adaptation, mitigation, and structural policy support, climate change will deepen rural poverty, intensify inequality, and undermine global food security.