Future climate projections for Western Vidarbha Region

Abstract

Climate change poses significant challenges to agricultural systems in semi-arid regions of India, particularly in Maharashtra's Vidarbha region. This study presents future climate projections for five districts (Amravati, Akola, Buldhana, Yavatmal, and Washim) covering the period 2025-2055, with a focus on classifying wet and dry years to support agricultural planning and water resource management. The period 2025-2035 is projected to experience higher frequency of dry years (7 unanimous dry years affecting all districts), while 2046-2055 shows concentration of wet years (6 unanimous wet years). Buldhana district exhibits the strongest precipitation increase trend (+12.1 mm/year), while Yavatmal shows the most conservative projections (+2.8 mm/year) with the highest number of projected dry years (14 out of 31 years). These findings have critical implications for drought preparedness in the near term and excess water management in the latter half of the projection period. The study provides actionable climate information for policymakers, farmers, and water resource managers to develop targeted adaptation strategies.