Futuristic temperature projections for Coastal districts of Odisha using CMIP5

Abstract

Significant hazards are posed by rising global temperatures to coastal areas, especially those that depend on climate-sensitive agriculture. Sea level rise, tidal surges, cyclones and warming all pose serious threats to food security and rural livelihoods in coastal Odisha, which is situated along the Bay of Bengal. Using the CMIP5 climate model framework, this study evaluated future temperature estimates for Puri, Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapara coastal districts under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). The daily temperature data from 2001 to 2017 provided from Meteorological Centre, Bhubaneswar was taken as baseline for comparison. Using time horizons of 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090, projections were created for the Kharif season. To account for localized variability, the results were downscaled to a 3 km resolution. The results showed a distinct warming trend across all districts, with minimum temperatures increasing faster than maximum temperatures, suggesting a more pronounced warming trend at night. RCP 8.5 predicted that minimum temperatures would rise more quickly, reaching 3.28 °C, 2.65 °C and 3.85 °C, while maximum temperature rises would reach 2.74 °C, 3.22 °C and 2.51 °C in Puri, Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapara respectively by 2090. Such asymmetric warming might worsen heat stress in humans and cattle, hasten crop maturation, lower yields and increase the pests occurrence. Thereby, the research emphasizes the critical need for district-specific climate adaptation plans, such as improved planting schedules, heat-tolerant crop types and heightened readiness for extreme weather. These forecasts give policymakers a solid scientific foundation on how to build resilient coastal ecosystems in Odisha and prepare for sustainable farming practices.