Floriculture under climate change: Modelling impact, adaptive strategies and global trends

Abstract

Floriculture, a rapidly growing sector of horticulture, faces significant challenges in the face of climate change. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, elevated CO₂, and increased frequency of extreme weather events are already influencing flower production, quality, and trade dynamics. This review synthesises current knowledge on the impact of climate change on floriculture, integrating insights from crop modelling, experimental studies, and industry reports. It discusses species-specific responses, modelling approaches used to project climate impacts, and adaptive strategies ranging from cultivar selection and protected cultivation to technological innovations such as precision agriculture and AI-driven forecasting. Special attention is given to socio-economic and trade implications, as floriculture is increasingly globalised and sensitive to shifting climate zones. Case studies from major floriculture hubs, including India, the Netherlands, Kenya, and Colombia, highlight regional adaptations and policy frameworks. The review also identifies critical research gaps, such as integrating climate modelling with genetic improvement, assessing ecosystem services of ornamental plants, and designing sustainable supply chains. By combining ecological, agronomic, and economic perspectives, the article aims to provide a roadmap for future research and policy interventions to ensure resilience and sustainability of the floriculture sector under climate change.