Indian marine fish products export: Trends and market stability analysis

Abstract

This study analyses the structure, performance, and global competitiveness of India’s marine fish product exports over the 26-year period from 1995-96 to 2020-21. Leveraging India’s extensive Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and substantial marine resource potential, the research is based on secondary data and employs trend analysis, compound growth rate estimation, instability indices, and the Markov chain transition probability matrix.The results show sustained growth in export value, both nominal and real, with frozen shrimp emerging as the leading contributor and dried items also showing notable expansion. Conversely, chilled items experienced slower growth in the latter period, indicating possible market or supply limitations. The Markov chain analysis revealed varying degrees of market loyalty across destinations. Japan recorded the highest retention rates, indicating a stable demand base. The United States and the European Union exhibited moderate stability, while China and Southeast Asia emerged as dynamic, fast-growing markets, reflecting a gradual shift in India’s export orientation towards Asia.