Impact of climatic factors on Crop Production Index in India

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly understood as a global challenge, and agriculture is one of the sectors most vulnerable to its impacts. Changes in temperature, degree of moisture and greenhouse gas emissions can affect soil fertility, moisture availability and yield. Many studies have referred to the urgency of addressing climate, as agriculture concerns issues of food security and farmers' livelihoods. Taking the above consideration into context, this study assesses the impact of factors indicating climate change such as rainfall, temperature and CO₂ emissions-on agriculture performance in India, using crop production index (refers to output) as the indicator based on a sample location for the period of 1990-2022. The 33-year analysis enables us to identify any long-term trends. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL-model) will capture both short-run and long-run transportations between climate variables and agricultural productivity. This research is expected to provide insight to policy-making considerations for future resilience and sustainably transitioning agricultural development in India.