Growth and instability in area, production, productivity and export of millets in India

Abstract

Millets, traditionally cultivated and consumed across India, have long played a crucial role in ensuring food and nutritional security, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. However, following the Green Revolution, the area under millet cultivation drastically declined due to increased focus on high-yielding varieties of rice and wheat, extensive irrigation development, and changes in consumption patterns. Recognizing their resilience, low input requirements, and superior nutritional profile, the Government of India rebranded millets as “Nutri-Cereals” and has since undertaken various initiatives to promote their production and global outreach. Against this backdrop, the present paper highlights the growth and instability in area, production, productivity and export of major millets such as Bajra (Pearl Millet), Ragi (Finger Millet), and Jowar (Sorghum) in India over the ten-year period from 2014–15 to 2023–24. Trend analysis shows mixed patterns across millets. Bajra had stable area (CAGR: 0.0%) with rising production (2.8%) and yield (2.6%). Ragi showed stagnation in area (0.0%) and slight decline in production (-0.1%) and yield (-0.2%). Jowar saw sharp area decline (-5.81%) but strong yield growth (4.71%). Export trends revealed a significant fall in Bajra export quantity (CAGR: -9.84%) and moderate decline in value (-5.59%). Ragi exports grew notably value (17.76%) and quantity (12.46%). Jowar exports showed declining quantity (-10.87%) but moderate value growth (5.93%). Over a decade, Bajra showed stable area (CV: 3.43%, CDVI: 3.41%), moderate yield (CV: 9.19%, CDVI: 4.61%) and production (CV: 10.74%, CDVI: 6.83%). Exports were unstable value (₹4124.15 lakhs, CV: 28.52%, CDVI: 23.61%), quantity (15,487 MT, CV: 36.44%, CDVI: 22.10%). Ragi showed moderate instability in area (1120.6 '000 ha, CDVI: 9.75%), yield (1541.8 kg/ha, CDVI: 9.65%), and higher in production (1730.7 '000 tonnes, CDVI: 14.99%). Exports were highly unstable value (₹2409.88 lakhs, CDVI: 45.59%), quantity (10,496.71 MT, CDVI: 54.44%). Jowar showed high instability in area (CDVI: 34.54%), production (44.20%), and moderate in yield (19.71%).