Export performance and forecasting of cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL) in India

Abstract

This study investigates the export performance of Cashew Nut Shell Liquid (CNSL) from India over the period 1992-93 to 2021-22, utilizing a combination of statistical tools to analyze long-term trends, instability, and future prospects. Data on export quantity and value were examined using Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Coefficient of Variation (CV), and Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI) to assess growth and volatility. The findings reveal a declining trend in both export quantity (-0.99%) and value (-0.94%), accompanied by high instability as indicated by CV values exceeding 50% and CDVI scores well above the threshold of 30. A segmented five-year analysis showed that only the 2007-12 and 2012-17 periods experienced moderate stability and positive growth. Country-wise trade analysis identified over-dependence on South Korea, while ARIMA (0,1,2) forecasting projected a continued decline in CNSL exports until 2031-32. The study concludes that India's CNSL sector faces structural challenges and requires diversification, value addition, and supportive policy interventions to restore global competitiveness.