Growth and instability analysis of rice, wheat and maize of India: A comprehensive Study

Abstract

Cereals are the most significant staple crops in the Indian diet, with Rice, wheat, and Maize playing a pivotal role in meeting the nation’s nutritional needs. India is the second-largest producer of Rice and wheat, accounting for 25.00% and 13.33% of world output, respectively. Additionally, India is the fifth-largest maize producer, accounting for 2.9% of global maize production. In this context, the present study examined the growth and instability in the area, production, and productivity of Rice, wheat, and maize during the three periods i.e., Period I (2000-2011), Period II (2011-2022) and Period III (2011-2022). Growth was measured using the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), and instability was examined using the Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI). The findings show crop-specific variability in growth and instability across. The results reveal that all three crops experienced positive growth in production during 2000-23. Maize exhibited the highest growth rate (4.51%) during the period 2000-23 and of 5.70% during period 2000-11. Rice recorded a negative growth rate in area (-0.046%). Instability analysis of rice showed lower variability in production and area. The instability in production of wheat was higher than that of area and productivity.