Analysis of predictive model for area of cereal crops (Paddy, Kodo-kutki, Jowar and Maize) in Mahasamund district of Chhattisgarh

Abstract

The study has been conducted in the Mahasamund District, which is part of the Chhattisgarh Plains. Planners must have knowledge about the current state of crops and the elements that contribute to them, such as area and productivity, in order to change any government programs or policies. Predictive models for the area of cereal crops (Paddy, Kodo-kutki, Jowar, and Maize) in Mahasamund district, Chhattisgarh, were examined in the current study using time series data on the total cereal crops from 1998-1999 to 2018-19. The structural periodic effect, which displays the cyclic pattern, if any, in conjunction with the annual trend effect in the time-series data, was a distinctive characteristic of the prediction models. The area of the cereals was used to assess this periodic effect. In addition to this model, which was used as a first case and assumed to have a 3-year periodic cyclic effect and an annual effect working within it as a nested effect, another model was used for comparison with the first case and for prediction. This model included an overall periodic variable along with an overall trend effect without any nesting (Singh et al.).