Diversification and transition probability matrix of major crops in Gujarat

Abstract

Gujarat's diverse agro-climatic conditions allow its various districts and regions to cultivate a wide range of crops. This offers a strong rationale for analysing crop diversification across the state. This study examines crop diversification patterns over three time periods viz., 2001-10, 2011-20 and the overall period of 2001-20. The analysis utilizes the Entropy Index (EI), Modified Entropy Index (MEI) and Composite Entropy Index (CEI) to evaluate the extent of diversification. The findings revealed that Mahesana and Gandhinagar consistently ranked among the most diversified districts throughout all three periods. In contrast, Amreli remained the least diversified, indicating a persistent trend toward crop specialization. North Gujarat exhibited the highest diversification at the zonal level during 2001-10 and 2001-20, whereas Kachchh emerged as the most diversified zone in 2011-20. Saurashtra consistently recorded the lowest level of diversification across all periods. At the state level, Gujarat demonstrated a notable degree of diversification across all indices and time periods. During the initial decade (2001-10), the state recorded an EI of 1.067, MEI of 0.746 and CEI of 0.718. These values increased slightly in the subsequent decade (2011-20) to 1.090 for EI, 0.762 for MEI and 0.733 for CEI, indicating an overall enhancement in the extent of crop diversification. The findings confirmed that Gujarat remained a diversified state throughout the entire study period. The Transition Probability Matrix (TPM) revealed that bajra had the highest retention probability at 0.85, whereas fennel exhibited the lowest retention probability at 0.01. The transitions from banana to wheat and brinjal to cotton recorded the highest probabilities of shifting from one crop to another.