Impact of climate change on coffee price: A comparative review with focus on India and other major coffee-growing countries

Abstract

Coffee is among the most economically significant agricultural commodities globally, cultivated in over 70 countries and sustaining the livelihoods of more than 125 million people, many of whom are smallholder farmers. However, the sector faces mounting risks from climate change, including rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, increased pest and disease prevalence, and shifting agroecological zones. These changes threaten not only yield and bean quality but also the economic viability of coffee production, particularly in vulnerable regions. This paper provides a comparative analysis of the biophysical and economic impacts of climate change on coffee production and pricing, with a focus on India and four major coffee-producing countries: Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Ethiopia. Drawing from current scientific literature and institutional data, the review examines key climate stressors temperature rise, hydrological variability, pest outbreaks and their consequences on crop performance, input costs, supply chain stability, and international price volatility. The analysis reveals that India, despite its relatively smaller global market share, faces climate risks comparable to those in other developing producer nations due to its reliance on arabica coffee in fragile hill ecosystems and the limited adaptive capacity of smallholders. In contrast, Brazil and Vietnam exhibit stronger institutional responses and technological capacity for adaptation. The review concludes with policy recommendations for enhancing climate resilience in India’s coffee sector, emphasizing research, finance, infrastructure, and integrated governance. Strengthening these areas will be essential for ensuring long-term sustainability and competitiveness in the face of escalating climate challenges.