Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity and Food Security among Rice Farmers in Oyo State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and food security among smallholder rice farmers in Oyo State, Nigeria. Using a multi-stage sampling technique, primary data were collected from 200 respondents through structured questionnaires. Results indicated that respondents were predominantly male (73%) with a mean age of 45.6 years, an average of 16.2 years of farming experience, and a mean farm size of 1.95 hectares. Perceived impacts of climate variability include delayed planting and harvesting (mean = 4.42), reduced yields (mean = 4.17), and pest and disease outbreaks (mean = 4.14), while variables such as improved overall rice yield (mean = 2.35) and reduced cost of input use (mean = 2.08) were perceived negatively. Logistic regression analysis revealed that educational attainment and cooperative membership (p < 0.01), Age and access to credit (p < 0.05), and gender and farming experience (p < 0.10) significantly influenced stakeholders’ willingness to adopt climate-smart technologies. Other socio-demographic factors, marital status, farm size and contact with extension agents, were not statistically significant. Adaptation strategies ranked highly by farmers include adjusting planting dates (mean rank = 5.36), using drought-tolerant varieties (5.02), and applying organic manure (4.74), with Kendall’s W = 0.614 indicating moderate consensus. The study contributes empirical insights into climate adaptation behaviour and highlights the need for institutional support to build climate resilience among smallholder farmers.