Trend analysis and test of randomness in soybean cultivation: A case study of Madhya Pradesh and India

Abstract

This study analyses the trends and randomness in soybean area, production, and yield over a 54-year period for Madhya Pradesh and India. The Test of Randomness was applied to examine whether the data followed a random pattern or exhibited systematic behaviour. Results revealed that all parameters: area, production and yield showed significant deviations from randomness, with t-values less than the critical value at the 5% significance level. This indicates the presence of structured trends in all series. Trend analysis using cubic models further confirmed non-linear patterns in the data. In both Madhya Pradesh and India, area and production exhibited strong model fits with high R² values, while yield trends were weaker and more unstable. These findings suggest that while soybean cultivation has expanded steadily in terms of area and production, yield remains inconsistent, especially in Madhya Pradesh. The study highlights the need for targeted interventions to enhance productivity and stabilize yield trends for sustainable soybean growth.