Temporal trends and predictive analysis of accidental fatalities in al Najaf governorate: A community study with a focus on unexplained deaths and demographic contributions (2021-2023)

Abstract

Background: Unintentional death represents a major global public health issue, having a contribution to morbidity as well as to economic cost. There is a pattern of death by age, sex, and environmental circumstances, with a tendency towards escalating unexplained death. Demographic determinants, as well as trends in time, are crucial to planning proper public health interventions. Objective: This research examines time trends, demographic contribution, and predicting factors of accidental death in the Al Najaf Governorate of Iraq (2021-2023), with an emphasis placed on unexplained death. Method: A retrospective analysis of 4,711 cases was conducted using data from the Forensic Medicine Department, categorized into five main causes of death. Temporal trends were evaluated using one-way ANOVA, and future fatalities were predicted using an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. A Random Forest classifier assessed demographic contributions to mortality patterns. Results: Significant annual variability was observed across all causes of death (p