Determinants of graduate unemployment: A survival analysis approach

Abstract

Unemployment is the state of being unemployed. People who are actively seeking employment and currently available to start work are the unemployed. Since the rate of unemployment is on the rise, this research aims to predict or identify potential determinants affecting unemployment in Nigeria using survival analysis. A total of 260 questionnaires were administered to unemployed indigenes of Bayelsa State. Out of which 253 were filled and returned and considered for analysis. The gender, marital status, educational level, age, grade level or Cumulation Grade Point Average (CGPA), field of study, place of residence, received training on job searching method, marital status, received training in the field of study and Local Government Area (LGA) were identified as potential determinants. The AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) were used to compare the efficiency of models between Weibull and Cox Proportional Hazard model. The Weibull model with the variables CGPA, received training on job search and received training on field of study as highly significant variables had the best fit with respect to the lower AIC value.