A study of trend and pattern of HIV/aids disease in India using growth curve models

Abstract

This study aims to explore the trends and patterns of HIV/AIDS disease prevalence in India by employing statistical growth curve models. Over the period 2000 to 2021, India has witnessed significant shifts in HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, and mortality. The analysis utilizes data sourced from National Aids Control Organization (NACO), focusing on key statistical metrics such as incidence rates, prevalence rates, and mortality of HIV/AIDS in India. The study applies various growth models, including Exponential growth, Logarithmic growth, and Polynomial growth models, to analyze the temporal dynamics and were fitted to capture the trends more accurately. Growth rates, including exponential growth rates, are computed to understand the speed of the epidemic's expansion or contraction across different years. These models help to identify regions with the highest burden and the effectiveness of control measures, such as antiretroviral therapy (ART), in mitigating the disease's impact. By comparing model outputs with actual observed data, the study provides insights into the trajectory of HIV/AIDS in India, its regional disparities, and the potential for future interventions. The findings reveal that a significant reduction in HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence and mortality rates in recent years, The Exponential growth model was most accurate for incidence and prevalence trends, while the Polynomial growth model best captured mortality trends based on bias and accuracy tests, the study will contribute to a more nuanced understanding of the epidemic's progression and inform targeted policy and healthcare strategies to curb HIV transmission across the country.