Application of numerical models in predicting river morphodynamics under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Background: River morphodynamics, a key aspect of fluvial geomorphology, is profoundly influenced by climate change through alterations in flow regimes and sediment dynamics. Numerical models are crucial for predicting and managing these changes. Their integration into practical river management strategies is increasingly essential.Objective: This study investigates the application of numerical models, specifically Delft3D and HEC-RAS, to predict river morphodynamics under varying climate change scenarios based on IPCC AR6 projections, with a focus on implications for adaptive river management.Methods: Baseline and future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were simulated, incorporating hydrological, sediment transport, and climatic data. Models were calibrated and validated using historical records, while uncertainty was addressed through Monte Carlo simulations.Results: Baseline analysis revealed sediment transport rates of 500 tons/day and channel migration of 5 m/year. Under RCP 8.5, sediment transport and migration rates increased by 40%, while bank erosion rose by 18%. These findings align with existing studies and emphasize the importance of integrating climate projections for accurate morphodynamic predictions.Conclusion: Numerical models are reliable tools for predicting river morphodynamics under climate change scenarios. Future efforts should focus on enhancing input data accuracy and integrating advanced predictive techniques for sustainable river management.