Forecasting of onion prices in Lasalgaon APMC market, Maharashtra State

Abstract

The study "Forecasting of onion prices in Lasalgaon APMC market, Maharashtra State" aimed to predict prices in Lasalgaon APMC which will be helpful to onion growers and market intermediaries in Maharashtra in attaining income stability. Based on Secondary data of monthly modal prices from 2011 to 2023, the future prices were forecasted for January 2024 to December 2024 by employing the Seasonal Auto-regressive Moving average model due to strong seasonality. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) (20.20%), R-Square (0.793), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (468.023), and BIC (12.54) were used as a criterion to select the best model i.e. SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1)12 for price forecasting. The model predicted the prices in Lasalgaon, with the lowest price expected in April (Rs. 1075.67 per quintal) and the highest in October (Rs. 3140.72 per quintal). The model predicted a general upward trend in prices throughout the year, with peaks in October, November, and December which have shown seasonal fluctuations. This study helps farmers plan their cultivation schedules and assists the government in developing storage infrastructure to manage the seasonality of onion prices effectively.