Forecasting land utilization of India and Maharashtra using ARIMA model

Abstract

India is an agricultural country with Maharashtra state as its major contributor to the agriculture sector. In agriculture, land is the most important component. Hence, the land utilization pattern of India and Maharashtra state has been studied during this analysis over the past 11 years (2011-2022). The ACF (Auto Correlation Function) and PACF (Partial Auto Correlation Function) were calculated for the data. The future aspect of land by forecasting land utilization for the next 10 years has been done by using the Appropriate Box-Jenkins ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model. The forecasted results show an increase in some categories of land and a decrease in other categories, while for some land there were no changes occurred. This land forecasting will play a major role in the development and planning of agriculture and other allied sectors of India as well as Maharashtra state.