Envisioning future forests through simulation models

Abstract

Forest is a dynamic entity, keep on changing spatially and temporally. In the recent past rapid changes in the composition, structure, function and health was observed in the global forests primarily due to human induced climate change processes. In this scenario, Forest Simulation Models (FSM) are emerging as essential aids for predicting future changes and for choosing the appropriate management strategies. They are digital prototypes that simulate the behavior of real-world processes or systems, allowing decision-makers to evaluate various scenarios and situations. These FSMs are basically categorized into empirical models, process-based models and gap models based on their approach. Each approach has its own advantage and disadvantage which is dealt in detail in the article. It also elaborates the basic steps involved in simulation model application such as model initiation, parameterization and prediction. Available forest growth models largely differ from each other in many ways and they provide a large range of future growth estimates. Thus, selection of relevant model for a required end use is most critical.