Export performance and trade direction of turmeric from India: Markove chain approach

Abstract

The paper explores the export performance and direction of trade of turmeric from India. The nature of data for study was based on secondary sources. Time series data of turmeric export quantity and export value were collected for 30 years (1990-91 to 2021-22) from World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS). Growth rate and Instability Index of turmeric exports from India were estimated using compound annual growth rates and Cuddy-Della Valley Index, respectively. Direction of trade of turmeric was estimated using the Markov chain model. The annual compound growth rate of export quantity and export value of turmeric from India were exhibited 8.11 Percent and 11.31 Percent per annum. Export quantity and export value of turmeric from India exhibited a high stability with 0.63 Percent, and 0.28 Percent instability per annum, respectively. Markov chain analysis revealed that, United Arab Emirates exhibited the highest retention probability of 84 Percent of followed by United States and Malaysia, with a retention probability of 81 Percent and 79 Percent, respectively. Iran and Bangladesh showed a retention probability of 62 Percent and 42 Percent, respectively. The remaining all other countries showed a retention probability of 55 Percent.