MaxEnt modelling for predicting influences of climate transformation on the suitable habitat of Bulbophyllum acutiflorum A. Rich. An endangered orchid in Anaimalai, Western Ghats of Tamil Nadu

Abstract

The study explores the effect of climate transformation on the habitat suitability of Bulbophyllum acutiflorum A. Rich., an endangered orchid species in Western Ghats of India. Using MaxEnt modelling, we projected habitat suitability for the species across four periods (current, 2050, 2070, and 2090) based on ten bioclimatic variables. Our analysis reveals significant changes in habitat suitability, with low suitability areas (< 0.3) expanding from 149.92 sq.km in the current period to 283.37 sq.km in 2090. Meanwhile, highly suitable areas (> 0.5) decline from 139.52 sq.km to 57.19 sq.km over the same period. Among the bioclimatic variables, temperature annual range (Bio 7) contributes the most (31.44%), followed by precipitation seasonality (Bio 15) with 25.44%. These findings suggest that the species may tolerate varying temperatures and prefer habitats with distinct wet and dry seasons. Our study highlights the vulnerability of Bulbophyllum acutiflorum A. Rich., to climate change and emphasizes the importance of conservation efforts to protect its habitat.