Linear statistical forecast model based on agronomic-meteorological variables for productivity and production of paddy crop in Raipur district of Chhattisgarh

Abstract

Estimation of linear statistical forecast model for productivity and production of paddy crop for Raipur district of Chhattisgarh plains, based on major agronomic-meteorological predictors was carried out in this study. Statistical summaries of the variables along with some important graphical explorations were conducted based on 10 years data points from 2010-11 to 2019-20. An upward slope has been observed in area, yield, production, proportionate gross irrigated area, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, whereas proportionate total npk consumption, proportionate rainfall and relative humidity were found to be decreasing gradually for paddy crop of Raipur district. Based on the ARIMA (p, d, q) parameters, estimation regarding detection of serial correlation, linear statistical model was obtained for the paddy after box-cox transformation, to ensure normality. The analysis was carried out using “R” software (R core team 2023).