Analysis and forecasting of the dynamics of fuel trade between Turkmenistan and China using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model

Abstract

Energy resources are vital to determining geopolitical strategy and driving economic growth in the modern global environment. International fuel commerce is fundamental to political and economic relations between countries, and the connection between China and Turkmenistan is particularly significant in this regard. Turkmenistan is well-positioned to serve as a major energy provider to China, given its vast supplies of natural gas. This research uses the ARIMA technique to forecast trade dynamics using fuel trade data from 2005 to 2022. The findings provide valuable insights for strategic policymaking and promote cooperation within the energy industry.