Incidence and prevalence of total joint replacements due to osteoarthritis in the elderly

Abstract

Aim: We analyzed risk factors for the occurrence of TJRs due to osteoarthritis and factors associated with late-life prevalence. Methods: Following the exclusion of inflammatory arthritis and fractures as potential etiologies of TJR, a total of 100 study participants were selected for osteoarthritis research (mean age (SD) 76.4 (5.5), with 58% being female). Results: During the five-year follow-up, the incidence of at least one joint replacement operation as a result of OA was 1.3% per year, while the prevalence was 11.6%. The prevalence of TJR in old age was positively correlated with BMI, severity of hand OA, female gender, digit length ratio, and spine BMD. Prevalence of prior TJR in the contralateral joint, symptoms at initial visit, and body mass index were risk factors for TJRs in the incidence group. Discriminatory analysis revealed significantly stronger associations for TKR than for THR, with AUC values of 0.71 and 0.84, respectively, for late life prevalence and incidence.Conclusion: This research demonstrates the significance of the disparate data presented by late life prevalence versus incidence regarding the risk factors for severe osteoarthritis of the hip and knee. Prior description of the observation that prior TJR is a risk factor for subsequent TJR in the contralateral joint is absent. The high power predictions for TKR indicate that the development of a predictive model may be viable, especially if additional predictive variables, such as genetic, biomarker, or imaging data, can be incorporated.