Identifying existing pattern in area and production of major food grains in Karnataka using linear and non-linear statistical models

Abstract

The study was carried out across all the districts of Karnataka. The secondary data on area and production of major food grains of all the districts for the duration from 1950-2019 will be collected from ‘Karnataka at a Glance’ published by the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of Karnataka, Bangalore. To analyse the trends in area and production of major food grains (Paddy, Jowar, Bajra, Ragi) of Karnataka using linear, cubic, exponential and log-logistic model. The best fit model was selected based on the minimum value of RMSE. Exponential model was found to be the best fit model for area and production for Bajra, Ragi, area and production had linear growth for Paddy, Jowar had exponential growth over area and linear growth over production crops during 1950 to 2019.