An analysis of growth and instability in area, production, yield and price behaviour of rice in India

Abstract

To studied the growth performance of rice and instability in area and production, impact of MSP on acreage and price behavior of rice in India. Total 10 major producing states of India and 5 major producing districts of Gujarat for rice crop were selected for the study. Based on highest average arrivals of last decade, one market was taken from selected states, as well as from Gujarat state. The data of area, production and productivity were collected for the period 1990-91 to 2019-20. The data on monthly wholesale prices and arrivals of rice was compiled for the period from January 2010 to December 2019. The compound growth rate and Cuddy-Della Valle Index were used to estimate the growth and instability in area, production and yield of rice. Nerlovian Lag model was used to analyse acreage response of rice crop. ARIMA model was used for forecasting. The behaviour of prices and arrivals was examined through multiplicative model. The result revealed that the growth rate of area under rice was found negative but significant in most of the selected states. The growth rate of production and yield of rice was found positive and significant in most of the selected states as well as for India as a whole. In Gujarat, the growth rate of area, production and yield of rice was found positive and significant during overall study period. In India, the results of instability indices found to have low instability in area, production and yield of rice. In Gujarat, the instability of area and yield under rice found lower, while it was moderate in case of production during overall period. The study on impact of price and non-price factors on acreage allocation revealed that rice growers are more sensitive to non -price factors than price factors. The results of forecasting area and production of rice in Gujarat and India will increase in the next five years. The prices of rice showed less degree of irregular fluctuations, while arrivals of Vadodara market showed comparatively higher irregular fluctuation. The arrivals of Burdwan market showed less degree of irregular fluctuation. In selected markets not found any cyclical variation in the price indices.