Relative comparative advantage and direction of trade of raisins from Afghanistan

Abstract

The study intended to examine the relative comparative advantage and direction of trade of raisins from Afghanistan. The secondary data was analyzed for the period of 2006-07 to 2020-21 and the statistical tools such as Nominal Protection Coefficient, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Markov chain analysis was used for the study. The results showed that the lower nominal protection coefficient values for Russia and UAE were 0.71 and 0.83, respectively. Higher price of raisins in the international market compared to the domestic market indicated distinct comparative price advantage in favors of Afghanistan for the year 2022-23. RCA value range for Afghanistan was 452.21 to 1549.90 with its average RCA value of 1031.20 followed by Turkey and Iran 27.59 to 39.67 and 14.29 to 57.75 with their average RCA value of 32.21 and 28.17, respectively, Afghanistan had seen significant growth in its relative comparative advantage for raisin exports, there was fluctuating over the years but still remaining relatively high compared to the other countries. In case of transitional probability matrix for raisins exported quantity from Afghanistan. Russia, UAE, India and Turkey retained 72.03, 47.33, 35.83 and 13.11 per cent of their original share, respectively. Pakistan lost 44.30 per cent of its share to others countries, 29.55 per cent to Turkey and 12.30 per cent to Kazakhstan, India gain 100.00 per cent from other countries, 73.30 per cent form Iran, 69.48 per cent from Kazakhstan, 21.07 per cent from Russia, Turkey lost 55.24 per cent to other countries. Afghan raisins hold a significant place in the global market, they do face competition from raisins produced in other countries, such as Iran, Turkey, and the United States. The price of Afghan raisins can vary based on factors such as quality, availability, and global market conditions.