A generic yield prediction model for grapes under agro climatic conditions based on disease management

Abstract

Climate has a direct influence on crop development and the final yield. In this article, a generic agro climatic yield prediction model for grape is developed and analytically solved. This model is useful for research scholars, faculty members and academicians in the area of mathematical biology. The asymptotic analysis is carried out to obtain the final form of the yield prediction model. In the process of model development, climate, disease and grape yield are considered as dependent parameter. Infection rate, disease incidence, seasonality rate and removal rate of grape yield per harvest time are considered as independent parameters. Further, the model is studied and the parameters estimation from the field level data during the period 2015-2021 from GRS and Theni surrounding villages. The effects of various parameters on concentration curves are discussed. Stability Analysis of this model is also explained. The obtained analytical solution in comparison with the numerical and stability analysis is found to be in satisfactory agreement. In addition, the basic reproduction number for this model is obtained. This model helps to predict the future calculations of infected and recovered yield for grape from the reproduction number R0. The model permits to highlight crucial mechanisms to undergo and evaluate the consequences of different agricultural practices on the quantity and quality of the yield.