Verification of Rainfall forecast for Visakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh

Abstract

The present investigation was done to verify the medium range weather forecasting issued by NCMRWF for Agrometeorological Field Unit, Anakapalle of Visakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh with the actual rainfall recorded during the last four years (2016-17 to 2019-2020). The reliability of rainfall forecast was evaluated by using error structure using 2x2, ratio score, HK score and RMSE values for monsoon season. The results showed considerable increment in terms of HK score, ratio score and RMSE values in forecast accuracy of rainfall. The mean seasonal Ratio Score (RS) ranged between 67.4 to 91.2 percent, Hanssen & Kuipers skill scores ranged from 0.1 to 0.6.