Dry and wet spell probability analysis by Markov chain model at Parbhani, Maharashtra

Abstract

Sequence of dry and wet periods along with onset and withdrawal of rainy season is necessary for successful agricultural crop planning and soil and water conservation measures. In the present study, Markov chain probability model was performed to determine the dry and wet week probabilities was applied for Parbhani using 30 years (1991 to 2020) weekly rainfall. The data on onset and withdrawal of rainy season indicated that the monsoon starts on the 23rd SMW (04th June – 10th June) and remains active up to the 42nd week (15th – 21st October). The probability of getting dry week was observed more than 50 per cent in 23rd, 29th, 35th and 37th to 42nd SMW in crop growth period at 20 mm per week threshold limit. More than 50 per cent probability of getting wet week was observed in 23rd to 28th, 30th to 38th and 40th SMW, thus chances of rainwater harvesting in this period is more and it can be used as protective irrigation.