Predicting the spread of COVID-19 epidemic using the SIR model and optimal intervention policy for Nigeria

Abstract

The spread of the COVID-19 epidemic has made the Nigerian economy vulnerable to both domestic and external shocks. Currently, the second wave of the epidemic is resonating around the world and may further depress the Nigerian economy. To guide policymakers, implement an optimal intervention policy, this study used daily data on 23 November 2020 and simulated a Susceptibles-Infected-Recovery (SIR) model to predict the spread of Covid-19 in Nigeria. The simulated model predicts that the COVID-19 epidemic will reach its peak around 31 March 2021, with a worst-case scenario of approximately 269.4441223 (×100,000) infected persons and 46.12 % of the entire Nigerian population will be infected in the days ahead. Further results indicate that an optimal intervention policy for Nigerian, is for policy makers to considerably reduce the transmission rate by increasing public health expenditure.