Analysis of precipitation trend and farmers’ practices to predict precipitation in North-Karnataka

Abstract

Precipitation pattern is varying both spatially and temporally. Understanding precipitation pattern enables proper crop planning in a region and decisions about farming. Farmers rely on local practices to predict precipitation based on which they largely decide on their cropping pattern for the year. A study was conducted to understand precipitation pattern and farmers’ practices to predict precipitation in northern transitional zone (zone-8) of Karnataka. Thirty years precipitation data (1989-2018) of this zone was collected from KSNDMC Bengaluru for analysis. Taluk wise annual precipitation trend was calculated using Mann-Kendall trend test. Farmers’ practices were collected from four villages of Haveri district and were assessed for their scientific rationality. It was found from the study that there are no empirical evidences to show that precipitation is showing increasing or decreasing trend. Numbers of runs were found to be more in case of Bailhongal (17) taluk followed by Savanur (17) and Shirahatti (16) indicating more deviations of precipitation in these taluks. Farmers use various biotic and abiotic indicators for weather forecasting. Eighteen practices of farmers to predict rainfall were recorded of which 7 were based on biotic factors and 11 on abiotic factors. Among these practices, only 7 practices (2,3,5,8,9,13,17) were considered as scientifically rational by scientists. Study results are significant to understand the trends in precipitation at taluk level based on which crops would be recommended to the farmers. Farmers should also be educated to rely on only those practices which are scientifically rational to predict precipitation.