Time-series modeling and forecasting of mustard yield in Haryana

Abstract

The importance of agriculture for Indian society and its role in economy, employment, food security, self-reliance and general well-being can hardly be over emphasized. Agriculture nowadays has become highly input and cost-intensive. Under the changed scenario today, forecasting of various aspects relating to agriculture are becoming more essential. In this study, Box-Jenkins’ autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) technique was applied to forecast mustard yield in Gurugram and Mahendragarh districts of Haryana. ARIMA (0, 1, 1) and (1, 1, 0) model has been found suitable for Gurugram and Mahendragarh districts respectively.