An undergraduate student flow model: Semester system in university of Tabuk (KSA)

Abstract

This paper focuses on modeling an undergraduate students flow at university of Tabuk-faculty of Science (KSA) with stochastic process model depending on Markov Chain. The proposed model built by a reducible discrete Markov chain with eight transient and three absorbing states. The probabilities of absorption (graduating, withdrawal and apologized) were obtained. Furthermore, the expected time student will spend when he is enrolled in a particular stage of the study program is estimated, the expected time student enrolled in the first semester can expect to spend before graduating is obtained and the probabilities of students' progression between succes­sive semesters of the study program for each academic year is calculated. The model also enables the prediction of future probability of student repeat specific semester, withdraw, apologize or graduate.