A stochastic modeling for paddy production in Tamilnadu

Abstract

This paper investigates predictive performance of time series analysis method for paddy production trends in Tamilnadu. In the present study had been carried out on the basis of time-series production data of paddy crop pertaining to the period 1960 to 2015 had been collected and forecasting the production for 2016 to 2020 using ARIMA (Autor Regressive Integrated Moving Average), Simple exponential smoothing, Brown exponential smoothing and Damped exponential smoothing models.