Forecasting the production of jute based on time series models in Bangladesh

Abstract

Jute is called the Golden Fiber of Bangladesh. Bangladesh is currently the second largest producer of jute fiber. In terms of world export of jute fiber, Bangladesh's share is more than 70%, which makes Bangladesh the largest exporter of jute fiber in the world. The global demand for jute and allied products has seen a steady increase driven be a fresh comeback for biodegradable fiber as people now look for eco-friendly products replacing synthetics. The main purpose of this project is to forecast the production of jute in Bangladesh. Here, we applied different methods of time series and analyze the yearly jute production data in Bangladesh over the period 1972-1973 to 2016-2017. We applied Box-Jenkin’s methodology to identify the actual model based on different model selection criterion. In this research, we found that ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is suitable for the forecasting the jute productions in Bangladesh. Comparing between the original series and forecasted series, we found that the production of jute is predicted to gradually increasing.