An empirical evaluation of the impact of Dutch disease on the Nigerian agricultural sector (1981-2016)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of Dutch disease on agriculture sector in Nigeria for the period of 35 years. It examines the causal as well as long run relationship between Dutch disease and agriculture sector in Nigeria over the study period. It is empirically evident that increase in only a single growing sector (oil sector) adversely affects the growth and development of other sectors in an economy. The study uses econometric regression tool to estimate the multivariate model, correlation analysis, OLS, Unit root test, Johansen co-integration test, vector error correction mechanism as well as granger causality have been used in the analysis of data. The result reveals that Crude oil prices (COP) negatively affects the Agricultural output (AGO). All the variables used except inflation rate (INF) are found to have the same order of integration that is, I(1) and also a long-run co-integration relationship among Agricultural output (AGO), Crude oil prices (COP), Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Inflation rate (INF) and Exchange rate (EXCR) was found to exist. The study recommends that proceeds from oil should be used optimally to develop the agricultural sector in order to reduce dependency on oil sector and also to boost the agricultural sector.