A stochastic model for the estimation of time to seroconversion of HIV transmission using Erlang truncated exponential distribution

Abstract

The use of stochastic model in the study of HIV infection, the estimation of the likely time at which seroconversion take place is an important aspect. The human immune system collapses very much based on the antigenic diversity of the antigen namely HIV attained in each successive contacts and it occurs leading to seroconversion. In this paper focuses on the study of stochastic model for predicting the seroconversion time of HIV transmission under the assumption that the threshold level of antigenic diversity is a random variable follows Erlang truncated exponential distribution. The mean time to seroconversion and its variance are derived and its numerical illustrations are also furnished.