Pre-harvest forecast of Kharif Rice using weather parameters in Bharuch district of Gujarat state

Abstract

Indian economy mainly depends on agriculture sector as it account 18 per cent of national GDP and it is most important occupation for most of the Indian families so; it is the soul of Indian economy. Rice is the most important staple food in India which play crucial role in daily requisite of diet. In the current study statistical crop modeling was engaged to provide forecast in advance. In this paper Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) Technique and Principal Components (PC) were derived for estimating average rice production for the Bharuch of district in south Gujarat. The weather indices were developed using correlation coefficient as weight to weekly weather parameters for the years from 1990 to 2012. The cross authentication of the developed forecast model were confirmed using data of the years 2013 to 2016. It was observed that value of Adj. R2 has varied from 72.10 to 80.80 in different models. The study discovered that high value of Adj. R2 was obtained in the model and which indicated that it was appropriate forecast model than other models. Based on the outcomes in Bharuch district, MLR techniques found to be better than PCA for pre harvest forecasting of rice crop yield.