Rainfall probability analysis for contingent crop planning in Jagatsinghpur (Odisha)

Abstract

Rainfall is the most important but variable climatic parameter in suitable crop planning especially in the regions of rainfed agriculture. Rainfall data of 20 years (1995-2014) of Jagatsinghpur district were analysed whose annual average rainfall is 1495.3 mm, with 81 numbers of rainy days, to find out the weekly, monthly and seasonal probability. During monsoon (Jun–September) 1077.9mm (74.6%), post monsoon (October-November) winter (December-February) and summer (March-May) received about 223.5 mm (15.4%), 12.7 mm (0.8%), 120.7 mm (8.0%), rainfall. It has been found that 75 per cent assured probability level rainfall of more than 250 mm can be expected only in July and August months and this rainfall is hardly sufficient for meeting the water requirement in upland situations. However at 50 per cent probability which is equivalent to average condition, cultivation of rice is possible under well water management conditions or else some non- rice crops can be taken as an alternative. On seasonal basis rainfall at assured probability level of 75 per cent is sufficient as the quantity is 850.1 mm rainfall in monsoon season. The Risk proof crop which can be best suitable for Kharif season are rice for medium and low land and non-paddya crops like groundnut pulses soybean can be taken. During winter season pulses like black gram, green gram and oil seeds like sesame, groundnut can be taken. Taking the predicated rainfall of around more than 60 mm during summer fibre crop like jute can be grown in Jagatsinghpur.